您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-31 20:05:02 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
10月31日广发鑫益混合净值下跌0.55%,近1个月累计上涨7.03%2025-05-31 19:54
区块链技术有什么用2025-05-31 19:51
融资周报 | 公开融资事26起;加密衍生品交易协议Variational完成1030万美元种子轮融资,Coinbase Ventures等参投2025-05-31 19:00
比特币能买什么2025-05-31 18:51
天气为什么不下雨-天气为什么不下雨的原因2025-05-31 18:45
10月31日华安匠心甄选混合A净值下跌0.37%,今年来累计下跌5.98%2025-05-31 18:39
xzc币行情2025-05-31 18:38
手把手带你体验 Coinbase AI 代理 Based Agent2025-05-31 18:12
10月31日国联匠心优选混合A净值下跌0.44%,近1个月累计上涨0.11%2025-05-31 18:08
meme币苹果 meme币最新版下载官方app下载2025-05-31 17:28
请问光大银行信用卡审批中和审核中有什么区别啊?2025-05-31 20:11
EKT今日行情2025-05-31 20:06
详细了解BE币是什么币种?BE币怎么样?2025-05-31 19:45
10月31日大摩万众创新混合C净值增长1.67%,近3个月累计上涨17.34%2025-05-31 19:44
拖欠京东白条会有什么后果?不是很清楚。2025-05-31 19:22
云币行情怎么看-云币现在的价格是多少2025-05-31 19:10
从格雷厄姆大师到中本聪:比特币价值投资者指南2025-05-31 18:57
360借条没有额度又该怎么办?有人知道吗?2025-05-31 18:32
以公允价值计量的金融资产分录是什么2025-05-31 17:57
10月31日华夏永润六个月持有混合C净值下跌0.13%,近1个月累计下跌1.14%2025-05-31 17:56